GLOBAL EXPORT MARKET REVIEW WITH DR GODWIN OYEFESO ON TOMATOES

North America is preparing for the termination of the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, with tariffs of 20.91% set to take effect on July 14, 2025, potentially reshaping tomato trade in the region. Mexico remains the main supplier, though supply is shifting as the season winds down and spring demand builds.

North America: Tomato trade deal with Mexico set to end

This week, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would terminate the 2019 U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, effective July 14, 2025. The termination means the U.S. intends to impose duties of approximately 20.91 percent on Mexican tomato exports starting July 14. In response, the Mexican government plans to engage with the U.S. on renewing a bilateral agreement for tomato exports.

Currently, Mexico remains the primary supplier of tomatoes to the U.S., with its winter season still ongoing, although it is expected to wind down soon. Additional supply is coming from states such as Florida and California, along with greenhouse-grown tomatoes.

Recent cold weather conditions reduced demand for tomatoes, as shopping and dining out declined. However, with the arrival of spring, there are expectations that demand will increase again.

Regarding pricing, the tomato market had been elevated for some time before softening slightly. More recently, prices have shown a modest rebound.

Netherlands: Sunny spring boosts growth, but disease poses hurdles

In the Netherlands, a sunny spring has boosted tomato growth, but growers continue to face disease pressure and adaptation challenges with new ToBRFV-resistant varieties. Prices have begun to decline as volumes increase and imports from Spain decrease.

The month of March and the first half of April were exceptionally sunny. For unlit crops, this created an opportunity to gain momentum, especially after the grey and misty weather had hindered plant growth for an extended period, particularly for growers who had planted before Christmas. Some growers had already decided, following the grey spring of 2024, to plant later this year. Others are now considering doing the same for next year, after yet another dull start to their cultivation.

Despite the now favourable growing weather, challenges remain. Some growers are dealing with powdery mildew, and there is still an adjustment phase to the latest ToBRFV-resistant varieties, especially when grown under full LED lighting. These newer resistant varieties tend to be somewhat more vegetative and slightly less productive than their non-resistant predecessors. However, breeding companies continue to introduce improved varieties, which are gradually enabling growers to reach the production levels seen before the emergence of ToBRFV-resistant types.

Thanks to the revival of lit cultivation, volumes were higher again in the last quarter of 2024, and yields also increased. As volumes have risen in recent weeks, prices have begun to decline. Currently, prices at the Belgian auctions—a key price reference—are in line with the five-year average. Prices are slightly higher than last year and slightly lower than around this time in 2023, when lower volumes were available due to a more difficult winter and reduced lit production.

This year, reduced import volumes from Spain are helping the situation. Local growers are benefitting, including through an early increase in sales of vine tomatoes to the German market.