Global Market Overview on Grapefruit with Dr Godwin Oyefeso

Global Market Overview on Grapefruit WITH Dr Godwin Oyefeso

A shift in consumption and demand for grapefruit has taken place in many markets over the past few seasons. Demand for grapefruit is contracting, causing sales to be slower too. This comes at a time when the World Citrus Organisation estimates an increase in production from Southern Hemisphere suppliers with grapefruit production estimated to grow by 11.58% to 532.539 tonnes in total in the 2024 season. South Africa, with an estimate that was revised downwards, is expected to export just under 13.85 million 17kg cartons (a million cartons lower than the initial estimate), but still 4% above last year’s red grapefruit exports. Their Star ruby grapefruit has a smaller size distribution this season due to high fruit set. A leading producer of grapefruit in Spain notes that their supply is growing faster than consumption. This is slowing sales, which means they will market the fruit into June, instead of finishing in mid-May as usual. Chile produces and exports a small amount of grapefruit.

In Germany, the switch from European supply to overseas supply is expected in mid-May. For this year, importers mainly expect smaller sized grapefruit from South Africa and Uruguay. In Italy, where producers have already, a decade ago, given up on growing grapefruit due to it not being economically viable. Grapefruit sales are not very high with stable prices. It is expected to pick up in summer during the busy tourist season as the demand for cocktails increases. In the Netherlands, importers have their eyes on the main supply of grapefruit from South Africa. They encourage suppliers to send good sizes over to Europe to help keep a stable market, while leaving the smaller sizes for the juice industry, that is said to be paying good prices this year. In the US, California’s grapefruit production is down. In Southern California, growing conditions have created a lighter crop with experts in the field projecting a production decrease of 35 to 40 percent compared to last year. Florida finished its grapefruit season around late March to early April. Growers are reflecting on what they see as a positive season. From late May until the end of summer, imported grapefruit will be available from different southern hemisphere countries, including South Africa.

South Africa: Estimate revised downwards, but still higher than last year

The Star Ruby crop has a smaller size distribution because of high fruit set this season, and so smaller sizes (counts 55 and smaller) and class 2 fruit are limited in exports at the moment. The export estimate has been adjusted downwards to just under 13.85 million 17kg cartons (a million cartons lower than the initial estimate), but still 4% above last year’s red grapefruit exports.

The grapefruit marketing started in week 11 and the aim is to stretch it as long as possible, helped by late areas like Pongola and Nkwalini in KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape. The grapefruit industry has since last year been tightly coordinating their Star Ruby exports, particularly during the peak period between weeks 16 and 22, to avoid the disastrous campaigns of 2021 and 2022 when markets like China were oversupplied coupled with high freight rates, and heavy losses were incurred.

Most South African grapefruit are heading to Rotterdam, just under 1.6 million 17kg cartons so far this season, followed by China (below a million cartons) where the grapefruit market is the inverse of elsewhere in the world: in China tea shops are the biggest buyers of Star Ruby grapefruit, not the fresh market.

The problem for South African grapefruit is that demand, worldwide, is contracting: a country like Japan that used to be South Africa’s major grapefruit market in tandem with Florida three decades ago, is third biggest taker now. South Korea pays the best prices for South African grapefruit, but the country is very strict on phytosanitary issues; Korean inspectors are stationed in Durban for the duration of the grapefruit exports to the country.

Taiwan and Italy, sixth and seventh largest grapefruit buyers respectively, are countries that take smaller fruit. Besides exports, the domestic grapefruit juice price is better than usual, competing with local fresh sales.

Spain: Lower demand, slow and longer sales period

The Spanish grapefruit production is 2% above the previous season, with a volume that would be close to 79,600 tons. “The Spanish grapefruit acreage has increased in the last seasons and the volumes will keep growing in the coming years”, says one of the most important growers and traders of this citrus fruit in Spain.

“We notice how the supply grows faster than the consumption, which we think it’s slowing down the sales. In fact, the market has been quiet during almost the whole season, which will make us end later than usual. Normally, we end finish our campaign around mid-late May but this year we expect to end on the first weeks of June” says the grower.

“The grapefruit campaign is generally very stable, except for the months of January and February, when grapefruit from Greece and Turkey with cheaper prices causes a stagnation in our sales, especially in Eastern European markets, such as Poland,” explains an exporter from a company in Seville. Approximately 26,200 tons- will be grown in Andalusia with Seville at the head, where more than 58% of the Andalusian harvest (and almost 20% of the national total) will be produced this season.

The first grapefruit batches from South Africa are starting to arrive in the European markets, but according to the exporters, the volumes are still very limited, with mainly small sizes. “The South African grapefruits are coming later this year, and that will allow us to sell our last batches without clashing”.

The prices stay stable at the moment, while growers have to carry out a better sorting of the fruit on the trees as the end of the season approaches.

“After flowering, the fruit has already set on the trees,” he continues. “The March rains have been very good and, not only in grapefruit, but in general for all citrus, we can already foresee that if everything goes well next year’s crop will be very good in volumes.”

Chile: Small amount exported

Chile does not have strong grapefruit production. Very little of their 400,000 tonnes of citrus that is exported annually is grapefruit, with only 600 tonnes sent to markets.

Germany: Switch from Europe to overseas supply expected in mid-May

In 2023, there were extremely large calibers of grapefruit from overseas and fewer normal to small calibers. This year, on the other hand, importers expect more normal to small sizes from South Africa and Uruguay, which is mainly due to the abundant harvest.

The grapefruit harvest has now begun in the early regions of South Africa (Mpumalanga, Limpopo) and the first containers are already on their way to Europe, a German importer says. The switch from Europe to overseas is expected to take place in mid-May. “However, the grapefruit harvest is off to a slow start due to heavy rainfall. At the beginning, the fruits in the middle of the tree are always picked first, as these are the first to colour. In addition, these fruits are also larger on average than those that grow on the outside of the tree. These fruits tend to be smaller, which is why we are expecting more fruits in the 50/55 grading compared to previous years. This will be particularly noticeable on the European sales market from the end of June, as most of the inside fruit is shipped before then and the European markets are mainly focused on the 35/40/45 calibers.”

Italy: Sales not high, demand to pick up in summer

At the moment, grapefruit sales in Italian markets are not very high. “It is a niche product whose demand increases significantly in the summer period when tourism increases and with it the demand for special cocktails. But the fresh product has a small customer base,” says a wholesaler in northern Italy who sells the product 12 months a year. It comes from Israel, Cyprus, Spain and Egypt. The Spanish product fetches the highest prices because it is considered to be of better quality. On the other hand, there is no grapefruit of Italian origin. As for market trends, the wholesaler says that prices have been between €1.30 and €1.80 per kilo for the past month. The red grapefruit has a lower price than the yellow one, which is more in demand by consumers. The price of the product is quite stable and does not fluctuate much over the 12 months.

A wholesaler from southern Italy adds: “In Europe, the production of grapefruit from the Mediterranean area is coming to an end and the first arrivals of product from the Southern Hemisphere have been recorded. Sales are fairly stable, ranging from €1.00 to €1.20/kg, and the market is expected to be without too many peaks, neither up nor down from the starting price.” According to the operator, the processing industry will play a supporting role for the product.

The chairman of a major citrus growers’ organization in Sicily says that until about ten years ago there was also grapefruit production in Italy, but it was almost abandoned because it was not economically viable. He says he has also worked with companies in Calabria, a region where production is still small. In this case, the campaign has already ended.

Netherlands: hope for discipline among South African exporters

“A reasonably good grapefruit crop is expected in South Africa, with an emphasis on the smaller sizes (45-55). Fortunately, local juice prices are strong. I hope South African suppliers have the sense to direct the smaller sizes and Class II to the juice industry and send the good sizes to Europe. If that happens, the market should be stable,” explains a Dutch citrus importer

United States: California grapefruit production down

Grapefruit harvest in Southern California is starting now. This season, growing conditions have created a lighter crop with experts in the field projecting a production decrease of 35 to 40 percent compared to last year. Expectations for quality, both internally and externally, are good with fruit from the southern growing region available through September or October. In California’s Central Valley, harvest started as early as March and production levels in that region are down about 14 percent. Star Ruby is the most popular variety as its flesh has a deep red colour and the juice tastes less bitter compared to other varieties.

On the other side of the country, Florida finished its grapefruit season around late March to early April and growers are reflecting on what they see as a positive season. Demand was good and matched the supply of fruit well, which made for very consistent pricing. Early reports also show more Florida grapefruit coming fall with some younger trees in outdoor groves coming into maturity as well as trees within the Citrus Under Protective Screens (CUPS) program also coming into maturity and producing commercial quantities this year. From late May until the end of summer, import grapefruit will be available from different southern hemisphere countries, including South Africa.

While grapefruit consumption used to show a declining trend, a small positive growth number has been witnessed in recent years. Since last year, grapefruit has been included in the USDA’s nutritional value program for schools, food banks, etc. This has helped with the movement. Given that grapefruit demand is very fragile and faces competition from other fruit varieties, California’s lower production levels are not expected to have a big impact on pricing.

Spain: Bad weather causes lower volumes and higher prices

The Spanish melon and watermelon campaign started in late April in Almeria, where there volumes have been lower than usual due to the impact of the bad weather at the beginning of Spring. The good weather in Europe together with lower yields due to a slight reduction in the acreage and the impact of the climate during the setting phase, resulted in a significant increase in the demand for watermelons and prices rising to unusually high levels in late May. This year, the early watermelons from mid-April have done very well in the domestic market, as the product has faced no competition and its arrival was eagerly anticipated in the markets.

Now the watermelon harvest continues mainly in Murcia, with an acreage of 2,400 hectares this year, 4% more than last year. The last rains and hail storms have slightly impacted the watermelon production, mainly delaying its ripening.

As for melons, prices have been decent for the growers in Almeria. Yields were also lower than usual in Almeria and sizes were generally too large. There has been less competition from other origins, such as Morocco, where the drought has taken a significant toll on the acreage. Also, this year there was not much overlap with melons from overseas, as their campaigns finished earlier, especially in the case of the Galia and Cantaloupe, whose quality has also been lower than in other years.

The campaign continues in Murcia, where the acreage increased 2% this year, and where the season kicked off in the last week of May with lower volumes than expected until week 25. In the first two weeks in which Murcia was harvesting melons, the demand was slightly lower because the cold and rainy weather in Central and Northern Europe hasn’t stimulated consumption. However, since the volumes were not that big, there has been a good balance between supply and demand. The recent storms have moderately affected the melon crops, causing some delay in the development of fruit. According to exporters in Murcia, there will be slightly less melon production in the coming weeks, but sufficient and of good quality to be able to fulfil their supplying programs as usual.

Italy: Drought causes Sicilian melons to suffer

Sicilian melons and watermelons are suffering from the prolonged drought. The mild winter brought the harvest forward by 15 days. There was a good trend for netted melons, a specialised crop, grown in covered structures. Average producer prices ranged from €1 to €1.50. Aphid pressure was significant at times, but overall was controlled, but not without production losses. A good commercial season is expected for the recently started yellow melons, given the lack of product due to the drought. Many plots have not been planted, so prices could be quite high. Mini watermelons and watermelons started with very good prices between the end of April and May, but were later held back by a drop in demand caused by bad weather in northern Italy and the rest of Europe.

The watermelon campaign in Calabria is about to begin. “In the next few days we should start with the mini watermelons. The classic ones will follow,” says a grower.

A Sardinian operator reports: “Demand has increased in the last few days, thanks to the African heat. The watermelon campaign started at the end of April, about 10 days early, but orders were relatively low until the first ten days of June, except for weekend sales when purchases tended to increase slightly. The start was therefore subdued due to chilly and rainy weather in both Italy and Europe, as well as a larger fruit and vegetable basket than in the summer months of 2023”.

A grower from the province of Latina, who exports abroad and sells in Italy, says: “The Dumara-type watermelon campaign started well, but then, from 25 May, the high temperatures brought the ripening of the product forward by a week. In Europe, the arrival of summer has been delayed, which has prevented demand from picking up. The production situation in Italy is not the best because there is little product and two weeks ago prices fell. Now we are trying to ask the buyers for a higher remuneration, i.e. an increase of a few cents. The situation with mini-watermelons is quite different: consumption does not seem to be taking off, there is no demand and prices are low. This campaign is not very linear, precisely because of the unstable climate, which causes moments of full production to alternate with moments of empty production.

Two major operators in northern Italy confirm that orders and prices were good until week 24, but have deteriorated since the beginning of week 25. Orders have slowed down despite the fact that the temperatures are summery and therefore inviting for melon consumption. Yields in the field are not high, but prices have fallen in the last week compared to the previous week. In the middle of week 25, the price range for good quality melons was between €1.40

Netherlands: Disappointing melon sales due to weather

“The melon sales this year can traditionally be measured by the thermometer, and it hasn’t been easy,” stated a Dutch importer. “Weather dictates both demand and prices, and this cold, wet, windy spring has led to a significantly disappointing melon market. With temperatures ranging from 15 to 18 degrees Celsius, melon consumption simply hasn’t picked up.”

“We ended the overseas season a few weeks ago. Spain started with relatively small volumes from Almería, which the market could barely absorb. Subsequently, volumes from Italy, Turkey, Greece, and Murcia entered the market, necessitating higher consumption,” continued the importer.

“European retailers have several promotions planned, but due to the disappointing sales, they are also cautious about scheduling the next ones. At the same time, no other fruit is standing out. We are already halfway through June, and there’s no fruit that is exceeding consumption expectations. Consequently, we are observing disappointing prices, both at the farm gate and in retail. Everyone makes certain forecasts, and if those aren’t met, stocks flood the market with potential quality repercussions.”

Germany: Wet weather leads to low demand

Due to the cold and wet weather conditions in Germany the demand for water melons was quite low over the last few weeks. The supply was dominated by Spain primarily, as well as Morocco and Italy. To avoid oversupply, many traders decided to lower their prices. Meanwhile the melon market in general was quite unsatisfying for the time of the year.

Hungary: Earlier start to season, exports increasing

The watermelon season started earlier in Hungary. Favourable weather conditions during spring has led to a good start for producers with small quantities currently available. This will increase substantially from July when the main volumes will be available across retailers and wholesalers in the country. Hungarian growers and exporters have seen good early demand from their neighbouring European countries who are looking to diversify their supply. This is because the Mediterranean growing countries have had weather challenges. The growing area has increased yet again with about 10,000 to 12,000 tons of melons and 140,000 to 160,000 tons of watermelons that are expected to be harvested this 2024 season in Hungary, with up to 50,000 tons of this volume to be exported.

France: Complicated and delayed start to melon season

The start of the melon season in France is very complicated, due to bad weather. May and June for the early window were bad months with very little consumption and production problems still linked to bad weather, which caused a lot of product deviations. The melon fields are suffering with lower production.

Delays of eight days are recorded in Provence and the supply today is less than the same period of last year. However, nothing is yet decided for the French season. If good weather sets in for a long time during summer, supply could intensify and consumption could finally increase significantly.

Turkey: Increasing European demand for watermelons

Turkish growers and exporters are seeing increasing demand for watermelons from customers across Europe, Scandinavia and the UK. They are asking for supply over a longer period than usual, up to November a grower and exporter notes. Demand in Germany is expected to be 25% higher due to the warmer weather and the European football championships taking place there. Turkey has expanded the production area, with a strong local market too.

Cooler weather during May has led to slower growth and higher prices of watermelons. A grower and exporter notes: “Despite these higher prices and competition from both Greece and Spain, demand remains strong at the moment.”

Morocco: Little to no watermelons due to drought and restrictions

The Moroccan watermelon season has begun with a significant reduction in acreage. Due to the consistent drought the country is experiencing, the authorities have imposed a production ban in some regions, and acreage restrictions on watermelons in others. According to professional sources, acreage is down 60% on last season.

The season began in April with decent volumes and quality, and high prices compared with a normal year. Then, widespread quality problems impacted harvests. The aphid problem particularly affected watermelons, causing the already limited production to disappear from the local and export markets.

Harvests from the Gharb region are expected in the second half of June, and later in the summer, but professionals are still cautious about quality, and a wait-and-see attitude prevails.

North America: Summer melon production growing

Cantaloupe and Honeydew melon production in the Southern Desert areas of Imperial Valley, Yuma Valley, and Gila Valley hit peak production in the first week of June. Consistent supply is expected for the next 20 weeks. The supply transition from the southern desert to the San Joaquin Valley in California will take place around July 1st. Then, there’s no gap or slowdown in production until mid-October given production and yields look strong.

Northern Mexico has almost finished its watermelon harvest. Arizona is shipping watermelons as is California, Texas, Florida and North Carolina. Other growing regions will start in the next few weeks.

Planting inconsistencies earlier this year means supply is light and demand is strong and it looks as though watermelon supply may be tight, albeit reasonable, for the 4th of July holiday. By mid to late July, greater supply is expected. Markets are good and the limited supply is keeping lower prices at bay. Pricing should likely hold through the holiday but come mid-July when that greater supply comes on, pricing pressure is expected.

Brazil: Recent heavy rain impacted volumes

The recent heavy rains have affected the harvest volumes of melons in Brazil. A large grower and exported said Brazil will have more or less the same volume and planted area of melons compared to last year. “We’re seeing increasing European demand for our Brazilian watermelons.” Despite the impact of the rain growers are relieved that the underground aquifers have been recharged, while the soil has been flushed clean and the natural vegetation has grown really well. “We therefore expect a very good quality season from Brazil in terms of productivity and quality. Our season will start again from about week 33 or 34.”

China: Local melon supply increases with warmer weather

As the temperature the increases, more and more melons go to the markets in China. At the beginning of June, a melon conference was held in Suzhou City, Zhejiang province. Various people from melon-related industries joined the conference, and 208 new melon varieties were shown. People are encouraged to develop domestic breeding and reduce the import of overseas varieties.

In Duer Bo town, Zhejiang province, the first melon from a plastic greenhouse is ready to harvest. “We can have 4,000kg from 1mu greenhouse, the output is quite exciting this year. Meanwhile, the market demand is high, and the price is very attractive,” the local farmer from Duer Bo town said.

In Zheqiao Town, Lin Xia City, melons are also ready to sell. A local grower said: “We grow No.946 melon and Jinta melon. Now Jinta melon is on the market, the price is around 15rmb/kg, and this melon has a very nice smell. Another variety No.946 is still in the growing period and will mature in around 20 days.”

Egypt sets new record for citrus exports to Brazil

According to EastFruit, Egypt has significantly increased its citrus exports to Brazil in the first few months of this year. Notably, Egyptian citrus only entered the Brazilian market in 2020, but since then, shipments have grown rapidly.

In 2020, Egypt exported a mere 75 tons of citrus to Brazil. However, by 2023, exports surged to over 14,000 tons. Impressively, during the first four months of this year alone, Egyptian exporters sold more than 31,000 tons of citrus to Brazil, setting a new record and outpacing Spain, their main competitor, by threefold.

Oranges remain the cornerstone of Egyptian citrus exports to Brazil, with Egypt leading in shipments since 2022. Throughout 2023, Egyptian exporters supplied nearly 12,000 tons of oranges to the Brazilian market, and from January to April 2024, this figure increased to 24,000 tons.

Additionally, Egypt successfully exported almost 7,000 tons of mandarins to Brazil during the specified months of this year, compared to just 2,000 tons in the previous year. Lemon and grapefruit exports from Egypt to Brazil were less substantial, at 500 tons and 190 tons, respectively.

Brazil, the world’s second-largest citrus producer after China, holds the top position in the orange segment. However, most Brazilian oranges are processed into juice rather than sold fresh, making the country a net importer of fresh oranges. A similar status applies to mandarins and grapefruits. Thus, Brazil is a net exporter only for lemons, with export volumes reaching almost 170,000 tons in 2023.

Regarding citrus imports, Brazil primarily relies on supplies from Egypt, Spain, and other South American suppliers. Egypt and Spain dominate the Brazilian market from December to May. In June, importers shift their focus to Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile.